Jon “Bones” Jones vs Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
Rampage has a huge edge in experience: 40 fights to Jones’s 14. Rampage started fighting when Jones was 12. Both men are outstanding wrestlers who are extremely dangerous on their feet. Rampage has knockouts over a faded Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell, but he’s a powerful wrestler that knocks dudes out when he connects with his punches. He’s had trouble connecting with Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans in his last few fights, but expect Jones to stand in front of him more than those guys did. Jones’s chin is untested. Getting tagged by Rampage in your first title defense is a scary time to get tested: if Rampage can connect with his punches, the young champion could fold under the pressure.
Jones is a gigantic light heavyweight with a reach of 84.5 inches – almost a full foot more than Rampage. Jones knows how to mix up his strikes use his length in a striking match, but he’s also a standout wrestler with lethal ground and pound. Jones has walked through the division completely unscathed; he hasn’t fought off his back yet, he’s hardly been hit, and he’s never been hurt. Jones got into the UFC about three years ago, and he’s gone from “gassing out against a reality show runner-up” to “demolishing one of the greatest strikers in the world” in that short time. He looks more impressive every time he fights.
Verdict: Rampage is all but indestructible. Jones by unanimous decision.
Matt Hughes vs Josh Koscheck
This is a fight between two of the division’s great wrestlers who’ve both been soundly defeated by GSP in recent years.
Hughes dominated the division for years in the first half of last decade, but the division has caught up to him. He’s no longer the wrestler who can use his size and strength to bully his opponent. Now he’s older, slower, and can’t take a punch as well as he could. Koscheck, on the other hand, is a young wrestler who has the advantage in just about every physical category.
However, Hughes has thirty-three more fights than Koscheck. That’s a couple of careers for most guys. Hughes’s experience advantage might not be as useful as it seems, as he’s never been a cagey game-planner. He’ll shoot for an early takedown, and when Koscheck stuffs it, Hughes will be content to trade hands for the rest of the fight. Koscheck is the much better striker between the two, so I don’t expect Hughes to last long in a striking match.
Even supposing Hughes manages to take the fight to the ground, the last guy to keep Koscheck on the ground was GSP – Hughes is a great wrestler, but he’s nowhere near GSP’s league. Koscheck is strong enough to simply stand up, and quick enough to tag Hughes in a scramble. Really, I don’t see a lot going Matt’s way in this fight.
Verdict: Hughes is over the hill and under-sized. Koscheck by KO in the second round.
Travis Browne vs Rob Broughton
Travis Browne is a relatively inexperienced striker who was recruited through the TUF system. He’s fighting a grappler in Rob Broughton who’s a very round Englishman. These guys have a combined six rounds of UFC fights between the two of them.
Browne is an undefeated prospect who only managed to draw heavyweight gatekeeper Cheick Kongo because Kongo was deducted points for grabbing Browne’s shorts. Broughton has a less-than-impressive record in British minor leagues, but holds a notable victory over the one and only Butterbean.
Prediction: Browne by KO in the first round. The only Englishman to learn grappling needs to learn jogging.
Nate Diaz vs Takanori “The Fireball Kid” Gomi
Nate Diaz a BJJ standout who lacks the boxing pedigree of his older brother, Nick, but he doesn’t have the same kind of trouble with press conferences. He’s probably even better at BJJ than Nick, but he’s struggled against his last few opponents. He’s fought a couple of outstanding wrestlers, and lost decisions to both of them. The top tier of Welterweight is lousy with wrestlers, so Diaz is now fighting at Lightweight. Of course, the top three guys at Lightweight are all wrestlers, too, but he might have better luck with a smaller weight disadvantage.
Gomi is a wrestler as well, but he’s got devastating hands and so has basically stopped grappling in favor of knocking people unconscious. Gomi’s best days may be behind him; he has lackluster cardio, he’s been submitted by guys with a fraction of his fighting experience, and he’s never had much heart. What he does have is hands of stone and pixel-perfect timing: Diaz would be smart to put the fight on the ground and keep it there.
Prediction: Diaz by triangle, round two. Alternate universe: Gomi KO via Ippo Makinouchi’s Gazelle Punch, round three.
Ben Rothwell vs Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt
Rothwell is a mid-tier heavyweight who hasn’t fought in over a year. He proved he doesn’t belong in the basement with a win over Gilbert Yvel, but he also lost to current champ Cain Velasquez in Cain’s 7th fight. Not 7th UFC fight – Velasquez’s 7th fight ever. Rothwell is primarily a kickboxer, but he’s definitely nowhere near elite.
Mark Hunt, on the other hand, is a world champion kick boxer. His best days are far, far behind him: he recorded his first win in five years last February. Hunt hopes to turn it into his first winning streak since 2006. He’ll have to keep the fight standing to do so: 6 of his 7 losses are by submission, but even Hunt could probably survive Rothwell’s grappling attack.
In his prime, Hunt was literally indestructible. He took the best shots of the most dangerous strikers around: LeBanner, Cro-Cop, and Sefo. However, that was a long time ago. More recently, Hunt was knocked out by a guy he outweighed by eighty pounds on fight night. His heart’s not really in it anymore, and his chin seems to have gone missing alongside his heart.
Prediction: Hunt by third round KO, or atomic butt drop. No, really.