by Jovan Negovan
MMA fans, rejoice! This Saturday,the UFC will host one of its biggest events of the year and the timing could not be any better. After several lackluster cards, the promotion’s marketable champion, Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida, will defend his Light Heavy Weight title in a rematch against former Pride standout, Mauricio Shogun Rua.
Their first match, at UFC 104, was a technical masterpiece and considered by many fans and pundits to be a contender for “Fight of the Year”. It ended in a controversial decision win for Machida and in the hope of a more definitive outcome, the UFC immediately scheduled a rematch.
This match-up is a special treat for both hardcore fans and casuals alike because- not only are the two fighters ranked atop the Light Heavyweight division, both men are also near their physical and athletic primes.
Shogun is a master Muay Thai practitioner who made his bones competing in vale tudo, Brazilian no-holds barred matches. However, he truly made a name for himself in Japan’s Pride Fighting Championship. Shogun’s aggressive style and uncanny ability to finish, made him an absolute wrecking ball during his tenure with Pride.En route to a 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix championship, Rua defeated Rampage Jackson via brutal soccer kicks to the face, bested Lil Nog in anexciting war, and scored consecutive knockouts of Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Around to win the tournament. By the time the UFC purchased Pride in 2007, Shogun was considered by many to be the top 205 pounder in the world.
There was a ton of hype surrounding Shogun’s UFC debut, but his move to the organization was not without disappointment. In Rua’s first UFC match, he was pummeled and eventually choked out by Forest Griffin. In that fight, he looked like a shell of his former self. Subsequently, news surfaced that Shogun had suffered a pretty serious knee injury during his training for the Griffin fight. Following an elective knee surgery, Rua returned to the Octagon to face off against former UFC heavyweight champion, Mark Coleman. Shogun managed to finish the durable hall of famer, but his performance was less than impressive. However, Rua managed to reclaim his reputation as a fearsome finisher in his next match against former Light Heavy Weight champion and perennial contender, Chuck Liddell.With that resounding finish, the Brazilian managed to secure a title shot against the division’s new head of the pack, Lyoto Machida.
Machida, a martial arts prodigy who has been training Shotokan Karate from the time he could walk, has revolutionized how karate is applied to modern MMA. During the early days of the UFC, masters of other disciplines such as Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling often trumped karate practitioners. It quickly became apparent that the skills that had made karate fighters victorious in point fighting tournaments, were not enough to guarantee victory in full contact situations against well-trained opponents. What the discipline truly lacked, was an innovative fighter, such as Machida,who could revolutionize the integration of karate moves, stances and counters into a complete mixed martial artist’s skill set. His 16-0 undefeated MMA record is a testament to that. Machida managed to extract the most effective parts of his karate training- precision striking, countering, defense, maintaining distance and he seamlessly wove them into the MMA game.
In their first match, Shogun was a heavy underdog because it was expected that his aggressive, “always move forward”, style would play right into the hands of the elusive Machida. It’s important to remember that Machida won the title by counterpunching and knocking out more aggressive foes. However, Shogun surprised his opponent and the world with one of the most patient and technically brilliant game plans. Instead of rushing forward or precipitously pressing Machida, Shogun attacked the champion where he was most vulnerable, his legs.
Machida employs a wide karate stance that is not very common in MMA. He prefers to keep his feet more than shoulder width apart and his knees slightly bent, sort of like a half-squat. This gives him the benefit of having a solid base to fight off takedown attempts and it affords him the ability to lean his torso and head back outside the range of incoming strikes. However, Machida keeps his lead leg so far in front of him that it makes it an easy target for leg kicks.
This is very different from Shogun’s Muay Thai stance, which is much more vertical. In his stance, most of the weight is on the back leg and the front leg is mobile and very light. From this stance it’s easy to pick up the front leg to check incoming leg kicks since there’s no weight on the front leg.
In the first fight, Shogun carefully stalked Machida, cut off the cage, and then proceeded to destroy Machida’s front leg. This is where the technical beauty of the fight was really on display.
In most of the encounters, Machida responded by either back-pedalling outside the range of Shogun’s leg kicks, or firing off a crisp counter straight left.
Through the first couple of rounds, Machida appeared to be getting the better of these exchanges as he stuffed a few of Shogun’s take-downs, fired off some brutal counters and managed to sneak in a couple of effective knees to the body. However, Shogun stuck to his strategy and towards the end of the fight- the accumulation of all those leg kicks was evident in Machida’s impaired movement. Machida looked very flat in the last two rounds and if the fight had continued for another couple of rounds it seemed that Shogun was going to finish him.
Luckily for Machida, the judges gave more emphasis to his left hand counters and knees than they did to Shogun’s leg kicks and body strikes.
That being said, we learned a couple of really important things from the first match. While Machida’s elusive and unorthodox style gives fits to most opponents, we learned that he is unable to quickly adjust his strategy on the fly. Machida was eating leg kicks all night, but he couldn’t manage to figure out a way to stop them.
We also learned that Shogun is capable of employing a surprisingly patient and tactical approach. Who knew that a fighter, known for fighting like he was shot out of a cannon, could be such a brilliant tactician?
Ultimately though, Shogun might have been a little too patient in the first match. His corner was overheard telling him that he was winning the fight, and in the later rounds, when Machida’s mobility was compromised, Shogun did not step up the pressure to finish the wounded fighter. This time around, I expect Rua to go in for the kill if Machida is hurt.
Although Shogun lost the first match, I expect the rematch to be determined by Machida’s in-between fight adjustments. Will he figure out a way to check those brutal leg kicks and minimize the damage to his base?
One of the things that Machida did really well, which didn’t receive a lot of coverage in MMA circles, was his use of knees. Not only did he tenderize Shogun’s body from the clinch, he also landed effective knees from striking distance. As Shogun was moving forward, attempting to close the distance and fire off a leg kick or two, Machida would time Shogun’s movement and spring forward with a beautiful flying knee to the body. This Saturday, watch for similar knee counters from Machida. If Shogun ratchets up his aggressiveness, as many expect him to do, he’s going to be more susceptible to the champ’s knee counters.
It’s common opinion in boxing and MMA circles that rematches usually favor the fighter who lost the first match. The defeated fighter is expected to make the tweaks and adjustments needed to counter the winner’s style. However, in the Shogun-Machida rematch, I think this may not hold true. Shogun surprised the world with his patient approach the first time around. But, in the rematch, that element of surprise is gone. Machida knows that Shogun will target his body and legs with brutal leg kicks and body strikes.
So, who will prevail?
It goes without saying, that the two fighters are very evenly matched. Machida’s style is too unique and successful for him to change much in between fights, so Shogun is likely confident that he’s seen all that Machida can offer. Alternatively, Machida can expect a methodical attack from Shogun and will likely game plan to try to figure out some way to defend the leg kicks.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and pick the underdog Shogun. I don’t think that Rua can decisively batter Machida or put him away via knockout because Machida’s defense is almost airtight. However, I think that Shogun will mercilessly pressure the champion and look for him to let his hands go whenever the opportunity presents itself. I sense a trilogy in the making. Shogun via decision.