Ben Chan’s Mayweather-Mosley Prediction

Read on for Ben Chan’s prognostication

BEN CHAN:

I think Floyd Mayweather, Jr. will win because he’s a smart fighter, he’s the faster fighter and he’s not afraid to not fight.  I hold the view that Mayweather is both good and bad for boxing.  He’s a supremely talented fighter willing to portray the heel and every event could use a good villain.  At the same time, when I think about Mayweather, I think about his gifts and also who he hasn’t fought.  Mayweather has been fighting at welterweight (147lbs.) for half a decade (with one trip up to junior middleweight to fight and defeat Oscar de La Hoya).    From 2005 – 2010 Mayweather has fought and defeated Sharmba Mitchell, Zab Judah, Carlos Baldomir, de La Hoya, Ricky Hatton and Juan Manuel Marquez.  In other words, Mayweather hasn’t fought an elite welterweight.

Despite his lack of experience with elite fighters at 147lbs., I’m picking Mayweather because of his boxing intellect, speed and stubbornness.  One of Mayweather’s gifts is his ability to adjust to other fighters.  Against Judah and de La Hoya, Mayweather let the other fighter fighter press him early, made some adjustments and won.  Shane Mosley might currently be the second smartest fighter after Mayweather.  Of the two, Mosley has the better ledger of opponents.  I’m truly looking forward to watching each fighter adjust to the other.

It might be a bit contradictory to say Mayweather adjusts well and at the same time call him a stubborn fighter, but Mayweather is both.  Mayweather is stubborn in the sense that he will not fight your fight.  Mayweather can and will fight defensively and pot shot his way to victory if you give him the chance.  Audience be damned, he’ll stink out the joint and take his paycheck.  Putting on a show is not Mayweather’s top priority.  He fights for nobody except himself.

Mosley was once a really fast fighter.  He’s still pretty fast at 38 years old, just not as fast as he was when he was 28 years old.  In his last fight, Mayweather still looked like a really fast fighter, albeit against a blown up lightweight (135lbs.), Juan Manuel Marquez..  In Mosley’s last fight, Mosley didn’t really need to utilize speed against the plod forward style of Antonio Margarito.  I give Mayweather the edge in speed.  That being said, Mosley is a smart fighter who might be able to neutralize Mayweather’s speed with timing.

Do I sound unsure about my pick?  I hope so, because I think this is a toss-up fight.  In Mosley, Mayweather is fighting an opponent with an equal ring I.Q.  Mosley is willing to press the fight and he’s got legit hurtin’ power.  Neither fighter really has one punch knock-out power.  If  there is a knockout, it will come from an accumulation of blows and neither guy is going to make himself a very hit-able target.  I’m banking on the fight being a tactical chess match with Mayweather’s speed being the difference.  Mayweather by unanimous decision.

However, there is one major x-factor for me- age.  At 38, Mosley has been fighting “old” for some time now.  He knows what his body can and can’t do.  At 33, Mayweather is close to the age where boxers get old.  What happens if Mayweather suddenly gets old in the ring?  Will he be able to adjust to fighting “old” and Mosley at the same time?  I can’t wait to find out.

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